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The Site has been approved for issue in the UK by Harrison Rowe Financial Planning Limited trading as Harrison Rowe Private Wealth. Harrison Rowe Financial Planning is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”), and is entered on the Financial Services Register with the firm reference number 208467.
Harrison Rowe Financial Planning is part of a global group of businesses known asThe Harrison Rowe Group. Harrison Rowe Financial Planning Limited is registered in England and is established at 56, Wentworth Road, Blacker Hill, Barnsley, United Kingdom, S74 0RP, which is its registered office.
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These Terms & Conditions were last updated on 6th February 2019.
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Weekly Market Update November Sunday 10th 2019
Optimism over the US China trade war provides a spring in the step of equity markets
Comments from Wilbur Ross, the US Commerce Secretary, on Sunday saying that he was “quite optimistic” for a trade deal being finalised between the US and China, followed by news that the two countries were looking to roll back some of the tariffs imposed on each other’s goods, put a spring into the step of equity markets this week, whilst haven assets sold off. This positivity was further enhanced by data out of the US suggesting that the slow down in manufacturing has yet to feed into the wider economy, with fears of an impending recession beginning to relinquish.
As of 12pm London time on Friday, the US equity market rose by 0.6% over the week, having climbed to a fresh record high on Thursday. Over the year to date, the US market has risen by a massive 23% in US dollar terms. European equities climbed 1.6% over the week, having risen over 20% year to date despite concerns of a recession in Germany. UK equities rose 1.1% over the week, but year to date have only managed to rise by a comparatively lowly 10.7%, with the uncertainty created by Brexit having taken its toll. Japanese equities climbed 2.2% for the week, having risen by 14% year to date in Yen terms, and the Australian stock market rose 0.8% for the week, but just over 19% year to date. Emerging markets rose 2.3% over the week whilst achieving just over 11% since the start of the year. Within emerging markets, the domestic Chinese stock market only rose 0.2% for the week, but year to date has risen by just shy of 19% despite the trade war.
Defensive equities give ground to cyclical sectors
At sector level energy, metals & mining and financials all performed strongly over the week, whilst more defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples and utilities sold off.
Government bonds and gold sell-off
As a result of this vein of optimism, government bonds and gold sold off. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries, which moves inversely to price, rose to 1.9%, whilst Gilts rose to 0.8%, and German bunds rose to minus 0.23%. Gold sold off by 3.4%, now trading at $1,460 an ounce, whilst gold producer equities sold off by over 5% for the week but remain up by over 33% for the year to date.
The speculation on a trade deal being agreed between the US & China dominated markets during the past week. However, there were some other data releases which were also key to painting a brighter picture for the global economy.
Lead indicators suggest manufacturing slowdown yet to impact wider US economy
The US Institute of Supply Management released their latest data for the non-manufacturing sector of the US economy, with a sharp rebound from the three year low reported in October. The new orders and employment components of the survey both rose. This followed the non-farm payrolls from last Friday that came in stronger than expected with 128,000 new jobs having been created. This has provided greater confidence that the slowdown in the manufacturing sector has yet to impact the much more significant consumer or services sectors in the US.
China’s Central Bank eases lending rate to commercial banks
The People’s Bank of China lowered the rate to which it lends to Chinese commercial banks over one year. It was only lowered by 5 basis points to 3.25%, but significantly, this was the first time that it has been eased in over three years.
US inverted yield curve “un-inverts”
The yield curve in the US, which began to invert at the end of last year, i.e. the cost of borrowing over the short term is higher than borrowing for the long term, which has historically been a reliable indicator of an impending recession, has gradually un-inverted. As of today, the yield difference between 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries stands at 0.26%, having been minus 0.05% at the end of August.
Australian central bank holds fire
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its main interest rate at 0.75% and opted for a patient approach, having already cut interest rates three times previously. The Central bank also downgraded growth forecasts marginally for the Australian economy which is expected to expand lower at 2.25% from 3%, with a warning that wages were likely to remain stagnant. The economy is being hit by continuing soft household consumption, which is now expected to grow 1.4% this year while investment in housing is tipped to fall 11.3% through the year.
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